Previously, it was reported that Nvidia GPU prices will see an increase of around 10% starting this month due to an industry memory shortage. Mizuho Financial Group analyst reports that prices will keep rising until the end of the year, when the cryptocoin mining craze is expected to fade out.
According to Mizuho’s chief semiconductor analyst Vijay Rakesh, demand for Nvidia graphics cards among cryptocurrency miners is higher than expected this quarter, which could drive GPU prices up by 25% in the past six months. Here’s what Rakesh’s note to investors reads:
Our checks with the leading GPU and motherboard OEMs indicate SepQ GPU card trends are very strong, with card shipments coming in ~30-50% ahead of flat q/q expectations on strength from cryptocurrency mining. Cryptocurrency demand is driving strength in NVDA’s GTX 1060/1070 cards. The GPU/motherboard OEMs also noted GPU pricing was up ~25% in the last six months.
The analyst is expecting graphics card demand among miners to decline going into December. Apart from demand, the shortage of DRAM supply is also a factor to consider when it comes to pricing, though. The market research firm IC Insights is forecasting DRAM prices to jump by 40% or more by the end of the year, which would be its largest increase ever.
The OEMs also noted zero inventory of GPUs in the channel and constrained short DRAM supply and pricing also affecting GPU shipments. Coming off a very strong SepQ, there are also expectations in the supply chain that DecQ GPU sales could be muted in pricing and demand on recent cryptocurrency bans and DRAM shortages.
AMD’s Radeon cards have suffered from this as well. Since the launch, the latest RX Vega 64 and Vega 56 are in short supply on the market causing prices to go well above their official MSRPs.
The recent boom in the cryptocoin Ethereum is one of the big reasons for sales ahead of what companies predicted for this quarter. Ethereum is the only cryptocurrency that can be efficiently mined using GPUs, unlike others which use specialized ASIC hardware for better mining performance.
With time, however, it’s becoming more and more difficult to mine Ethereum, as is the case any cryptocurrency. This, combined with the recent bans on crypto exchanges by governments globally, is slowly making the mining business less profitable. Eventually, these unfavorable market conditions will help bring DRAM prices back down and so, Nvidia GPU prices.